Does overconfidence led to more firms being started?

Two somewhat competing papers were recently posted on SSRN. The Hayward, Shaperd, and Griffin paper suggests that hubris (overcondiSSRN-A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship by Mathew Hayward, Dean Shepherd, Dale Griffin: "Although data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Business Information Tracking Series show that 60 percent of the businesses launched between 1989 and 1992 did not survive six years,